Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
