Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
